IMF MENA Inaugural Research Conference: Steering Macroeconomic and Structural Policies in a Shifting Global Economic Landscape

Hosted by Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo (AUC) in partnership with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on May 18-19, 2025, this landmark event brought together global policymakers, academics, and thought leaders to bridge economic theory with regional realities. The event underscored that economic research is no longer a luxury but an urgent necessity to navigate the region’s transformative economic landscape.

Opening Remarks: Building a Regional Platform for Dialogue and Action

Samer Atallah, associate dean for graduate studies, set the tone by emphasizing the critical role of relevant research tailored to the region's unique context. 

AUC President Ahmad Dallal highlighted the event’s role as a vital platform in fostering collaboration between governments, academia and the private sector. "This is about generating ideas that are globally informed but deeply rooted in the realities of our region," he noted.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, called for building a lasting regional platform that connects MENA to world-class research centers to promote international cooperation and generate actionable solutions.

Key Themes and Insights from the Conference

Session 1: Rebuilding Margins While Addressing Inequalities — Fiscal Policy

Moderated by Pierre Olivier Gourinchas (IMF), this session featured Alan Auerbach (UC Berkeley), Ishac Diwan (American University of Beirut), and Barry Eichengreen (UC Berkeley), who discussed the delicate fiscal trade-offs faced by MENA governments. The panel highlighted the need for balancing priorities such as raising revenues for public spending, addressing redistribution needs, and reducing debt — all while managing finite resources. Broader consumption taxes like VAT and income taxes were identified as efficient tools, though challenges remain in fairly taxing multinationals. The session also emphasized that fiscal tightening must be paired with structural reforms and growth opportunities to avoid exacerbating social and financial stress. Political will, public trust, and transparency were identified as essential components for fiscal rules and reforms to succeed in the region.

Session 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability After the Inflation Scare

Following the first session, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (IMF) moderated a thought-provoking discussion with Kristin Forbes (MIT), Ahmed Kamaly (AUC), and Anil Kashyap (University of Chicago) on recent inflation dynamics and monetary policy challenges. The session explored how global shocks have driven over 50% of recent inflation, highlighting the limits of domestic policy alone in addressing such disruptions. Central banks’ “start late, sprint fast” strategy was discussed, showcasing how delayed tightening was followed by aggressive action that effectively curbed inflation with relatively low economic costs. The panel also addressed the challenges of fixed exchange rate regimes in Gulf countries, which help control inflation but limit monetary policy flexibility, while oil-importing countries, like Egypt, face heightened exchange rate and inflation pressures. Strengthening central bank credibility, improving fiscal-monetary coordination, and expanding access to private sector credit were identified as key priorities for the region.

Keynote Address: Understanding Comparative Advantage and Industrial Policy

Anne Krueger, a distinguished economist from Johns Hopkins and Stanford, emphasized the importance of recognizing and building on countries’ comparative advantages. She highlighted challenges such as political favoritism in public sector decisions and the need for strict governance and intellectual property protection to enable fair competition and effective industrial policy.

Session 3: The Return of Industrial Policy

Moderated by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (Brookings Institution), this session brought together Amir Lebdioui (Oxford University), Justin Yifu Lin (Peking University), and El Mouhoub Mouhoud (Paris Dauphine University) to examine the resurgence of industrial policy as a strategic tool for economic development. The panel emphasized that industrial policy is essential for fostering diversification, innovation, and resilience in both developing and advanced economies. Discussions also underscored the importance of deeper regional coordination within MENA to reduce transaction costs, build value chains, and unlock economic potential. The session highlighted the role of industrial policy in prioritizing low-carbon initiatives to position economies for sustainable growth and resilience, while also stressing the growing importance of services as key engines of growth. Panelists called for governments to implement dynamic policies supported by continuous monitoring, evaluation, and adaptation to changing conditions.

Session 4: The Green Transition, AI and the Future of Jobs

The final session, moderated by Antonio Spilimbergo (IMF), addressed the intersection of green economic transitions, artificial intelligence (AI), and labor market transformations in MENA. Speakers Tito Boeri (Bocconi University), Dina Abdel Fattah (AUC), and Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute) presented crucial insights on youth unemployment, informality, and skills mismatches, particularly among women. The session highlighted that while AI is set to reshape tasks rather than fully displace jobs, routine and female-dominated roles are most vulnerable to automation. Green jobs are growing but remain male-dominated, with significant skills gaps, particularly among women. The panel also discussed how migration, when aligned with labor market needs, can complement development strategies. Investment in reskilling, upskilling, and globally recognized vocational programs was emphasized as critical to building resilience in a rapidly evolving economy.

Closing Panel: Charting a Path Forward Amid Global Uncertainty

Moderated by Nigel Clarke (IMF Deputy Managing Director), the closing panel featured Francois Bourguignon (Paris School of Economics), Barry Eichengreen (UC Berkeley), Martin Galstyan (Central Bank of Armenia), and Youssef Boutros Ghali (Specialized Council for Economic Development, Egypt). Panelists emphasized the need to rebuild a fairer, rule-based international order to reduce inequalities while balancing fiscal consolidation with growth. The discussion underscored the importance of transparency, public communication, and political ownership in reform efforts, as well as addressing entrenched political economy constraints that limit competition and structural change. 

Conclusion: Toward Resilient and Inclusive Growth in MENA

The IMF MENA Economic Research Conference highlighted the urgent need for sound fiscal and monetary policies, institutional reforms and investment in human capital to address the region’s economic challenges. 

As Nigel Clarke concluded, "This conference is a milestone demonstrating the IMF's commitment to deepening engagement with the research and academic community, as we strive to ensure that the IMF support is not only responsive to the needs of member countries, but also built on rigorous tested analytics and importantly, it's aligned with local realities. Through this kind of multi-stakeholder dialogue, we aim to better understand how all our expertise and resources can be directed towards the most pressing challenges of the region.”